Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? CLEVELAND, OHIO – JULY 08: On July 8, 2019, in Cleveland, Ohio, Pete Alonso of the New York Mets poses with the trophy following his victory in the T-Mobile Home Run Derby at Progressive Field.
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The date of the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is **Monday, July 14 at 8 PM EST**.
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
The 2025 roster is still full of talented players, even though **Teoscar Hernández**, the 2024 Home Run Derby champion, won’t be coming back to defend his title. Along with **Oneil Cruz**, MLB’s current home run leader **Cal Raleigh** is scheduled to compete and is regarded as one of the favorites to win. Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
In comparison to last year’s group, which had **147 home runs** prior to the competition, this year’s participants have already hit a total of **174 home runs** this season.
Let’s quickly review the **competition rules**, which have undergone a few minor revisions in recent years, before getting into the analysis.
Home Run Derby Rules
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
The rules changed from a “outs-based” format to a timed format in 2015, which fundamentally altered the competition’s character. It’s now more of a pacing and endurance test There will be no preset seeding** in the first round of this year’s Home Run Derby. The **top four based on total home runs will move on to the next round, with all eight hitters competing Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?.
After the first round, if there is a tie the winner will be determined by who hit the **longest home run in that round. That advantage is currently held by Byron Buxton, who hit the group’s longest ball, 479 feet.Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
Each batter will have three minutes or forty pitches, whichever comes first, to hit as many home runs as they can in Round 1. Additionally, each player receives a bonus round that continues until they record three outs (a home run is considered an out on any swing). Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
The time is increased further until a fourth out is recorded if a player hits a home run of at least 425 feet during the bonus round.
With seeding determined by first-round home run totals, the format changes to a knockout format in the Semifinals, with the #1 seed facing #4 and #2 facing #3. Each player will receive two minutes or 27 pitches, whichever comes first, in the Semifinals and Finals. Additionally, home runs from previous rounds will not be carried over.
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? If there is a tie in the semifinals or finals, there will be a 60-second “swing-off” to break it without any extra time. The batters will then repeat in sudden-death rounds of three swings each until a winner is determined if the tie hasn’t been broken by then.
- The clock has a new twist this year: each hitter can only take a certain number of pitches in a round.
- When 40 pitches are up or three minutes have passed, whichever comes first, the round is over in the first round and semifinals.
- When either two minutes or 27 pitches are reached in the final round, which does not include bonus time, the round is over.
Additionally, each hitter can take a 45-second timeout during each round.
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
Max Exit Velocity
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? Hitters have a better chance of hitting home runs even on minor mishits when exit velocity rises because it also increases potential home run distance. The HR Derby winners since 2015 are listed below, along with their highest exit velocity during that season
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?.
Home Run Derby Champions Max Exit Velo (MPH)
Teoscar Hernandez 2024 114.1
Vlad Guerrero Jr. 2023 116.7
Juan Soto 2022 116.6
Pete Alonso 2021 118.4
Pete Alonso 2019 118.4
Bryce Harper 2018 116.3
Aaron Judge 2017 121.1
Giancarlo Stanton 2016 120.1
Since 2016, no winner of the Home Run Derby has had a maximum exit velocity lower than 116 mph. The maximum exit velocities of even the runners-up, Bobby Witt Jr., Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Joc Pederson, Miguel Sano, Kyle Schwarber, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Trey Mancini, were over 114 mph. The contestants with the best chance of winning are the ones who hit the ball.
Age is not just a number.
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
The Home Run Derby has accelerated significantly since the old-fashioned “outs” system was replaced with a **time limit**. A fast-paced, high-pressure environment is created by the fact that players now have **three minutes per round** and are permitted one timeout.
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? Endurance is crucial to winning because it’s easy for hitters to **run out of steam** and fade toward the end of the first or second round. The general consensus is that **younger players tend to have fresher bodies and more lasting endurance**, despite the fact that stamina is difficult to measure precisely.
However, last year, at **age 31**, **Teoscar Hernández** broke the mold by winning the trophy. With the exception of Hernández, every Home Run Derby winner since 2016 **has been 26 or younger**.
Consequently, we continue to think that this is **a young man’s game**.
Home Run Derby Champions Age
Teoscar Hernandez 31
Vlad Guerrero Jr. 2023 24
Juan Soto 2022 23
Pete Alonso 2021 26
Pete Alonso 2019 24
Bryce Harper 2018 25
Aaron Judge 2017 25
Giancarlo Stanton 2016 26
Examining Swing Speed Information
With the public release of **Baseball Savant**’s **2023 bat tracking data**, we now have **average and maximum swing speeds** for every player competing in the **2025 Home Run Derby**.
Delivering your **best possible swing as often as you can** and hitting home runs even on **imperfect contact** are the key components of the current Derby format.
The ability to drive the ball—even on imperfect contact—increases with swing speed. Additionally, I want to draw attention to the players who can **repeatedly unleash their best swings** during the rounds lasting two to three minutes.
To show how well they’re maximizing each round, the **average swing speed on competitive swings** of each 2025 competitor will be included in the section that follows.
Selecting the Home Run Derby Winner for 2025
2025 HR Derby Players Betting Odds Max Exit Velo Average Swing Speed Age
Oneil Cruz + 310 122.9 MPH 78.6 MPH 26
Cal Raleigh +360 114.7 MPH 75.1 MPH 28
James Wood +475 117.9 MPH 76.1 MPH 22
Matt Olson +550 113.8 MPH 73.7 MPH 31
Byron Buxton +900 111.3 MPH 75 MPH 31
Brent Rooker +900 112.4 MPH 73.8 MPH 30
Junior Caminero +1000 116.5 MPH 78 MPH 22
Jazz Chisholm Jr. +1400 110.9 MPH 73.3 MPH 27
Three participants—Oneil Cruz, James Wood, and Junior Caminero—stand out in terms of age and maximum exit velocity based on the previously mentioned criteria. Although Cal Raleigh’s exit velocity is at the lower end of the acceptable range, he still meets the criteria. Furthermore, he is just outside the ideal age range at 28 years old.
I’m not ruling out Raleigh entirely, though, as Teoscar Hernández broke the age trend last year. However, there are more affordable options at +360 odds.
Oneil Cruz feels as though he was created in a lab especially to compete in the Home Run Derby, which is the most amazing thing. He has recorded two of the hardest-hit balls in baseball history, perhaps even outside of the Statcast era. He has the highest maximum swing speed as well as the highest average swing speed. He is in his prime to win a competition like this at the age of 26. Cruz has only hit 16 home runs this season, but that is precisely why he is regarded as a co-favorite to win the 2025 Home Run Derby.
This year’s competitors, James Wood and Junior Caminero, are up-and-coming talents with a genuine chance to make an impression at the age of 22.
Because of their age and potential maximum exit velocity, I will be avoiding Brent Rooker, Byron Buxton, Matt Olson, and Jazz Chisholm Jr., especially when their valuations are higher than those of Junior Caminero, who has superior metrics overall.
The Official Home Run Derby Pick of Colby Olson
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Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
**”The best value play available is Junior Caminero. James Wood and Oneil Cruz have a good chance of winning this competition, according to the analysis above. Even so, I would rather spend my money on a player who provides comparable metrics at a lower cost—especially in a competition that is notoriously unpredictable.Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
Caminero is one of the league’s best hitters going into the 2025 Home Run Derby. He has hit 13 home runs in his last 40 games. Juan Soto, Eugenio Suárez, Aaron Judge, and Cal Raleigh are the only players who have hit more home runs during that run.”**
In order to win this competition, I set a reasonable price of +600 on Caminero, which should be priced slightly below James Wood and Matt Olson. BetMGM offers a ton of value at +1000 or higher.
The Official Home Run Derby Pick of Peter Appel
**”As previously stated, Oneil Cruz feels as though he was created in a laboratory for a competition such as this one. A player who *isn’t* already the overwhelming favorite and checks all the trend boxes is hard to come by. I’m placing 0.5 units on Oneil Cruz because I think his odds should be closer to +200 and he should be the clear favorite.
**While I do like Cal Raleigh, James Wood ought to be the second favorite here given the current trends. He is only a little bit behind Cruz, but they are very similar. I would definitely like some action on him at this price — 0.25 units on James Wood. His fair odds, in my opinion, should be around +300.
Junior Caminero is the last but unquestionably most significant selection.
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
Since he is the best value option available, his odds ought to be close to the top rather than the bottom. In a competition like this, the young Tampa Bay player, who is only 21 years old, is unavoidably going unnoticed. Although many people haven’t actually witnessed him hit yet, they will in due time. Junior Caminero will receive 0.15 units from me.
Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
In fact, this is the first Derby in which I have spread out my selections. I would normally put all my eggs in one basket, but given the current odds, there is a genuine chance of making money if any of these three men win. Even though I firmly think one of them will win the trophy, O’Neil Cruz remains my top pick.